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Post by brian on Jan 26, 2006 16:54:42 GMT -5
Harper’s weak minority presents a big challenge and I almost feel sorry for him. The NDP despite their gains are now numerically insignificant and Harper needs either the Liberals or the Bloc to govern. The Liberals could choose to work with him until their leadership convention then pull the plug when their new leader enters the honeymoon phase, if that happens. Or, they could maintain their mandated opposition role and force Harper to work with the Bloc, which would be optically toxic. I wouldn't underestimate, though, Harper’s political smarts whoever he works with. As for the Liberals, they must avoid their habit of electing the media darling as leader. It worked for Trudeau but not John Turner or Paul Martin. They tend to disappoint in the glare of the spotlight. Jack Layton has an easier road for now though. Hate to say it, but fall election anyone? Zac, I’m interested to hear you thoughts about strategic voting. Could never do it myself. Mabudon, I think Harper is too smart to force social conservatism in this parliament. His goal will be working towards a majority next time and then watch out. Most of what Harper does will be reversible. But, if he works with the Bloc, there may be some irreversible decentralization of confederation that would no doubt please some other provinces. He could get the Feds out of social programs and cut taxes including his promised GST cut. Then, he could tell the provinces there is now leeway to raise there own taxes and PST if they want ownership of these programs. The results of this would be irreversible. Hard to say if he would risk this.
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Post by zac on Jan 26, 2006 17:32:10 GMT -5
Sorry to leave you hanging Brian I've been quite busy this week. I think the "shock" of the Liberals winning as many seats as they did was directly correlated to strategic voting. I know a fair few people who were scared of a Harper majority due to the polls (I hate polls) and thus voted for the liberals as the NDP seemed to be a soft option. This kind of thinking is very far from a functioning democratic society. I think that ultimately a Harper majority would've been head and shoulders above what we've got now. Minority governments relatively freeze all political agendas good or bad. Unfortunately, i'd say we're about to go through a spree of "snap-elections" which will ultimately discourage the general public's desire to vote.
In all honesty this is probably the worst time in the history of...forever... for any country to be going through political unrest. I think within the next ten-years there will be a worldwide power struggle and we'll need a strong political base supported by the majority of the population. Perhaps the first of many crisis' will be the ultimate realization that oil is running out and the ensuing depression/economic trough that may follow. I expect a BIG immigration boom as populations reach an ALL TIME high growth rate followed by a realization that we've f'd up the environment to a point of no return. As of now there is no Canadian leader that can take up the flag last carried by Pearson and Trudeau. Therefore my faith lies in the Liberal leadership conference. If I am dissapointed I believe it's time to start something big...a real revolution...second renaissance...whatever you'd like to call it. We must realize that the way we are living is not the way we'll be living 100 or 50 years from now. It's about time we started to change and it'll be tough. People aren't very open to change when it's inconvenient for them. However freedoms must be sacrificed if we are ever to co-exist peacefully with nature. And believe me if it comes down to it...We will get our sorry behinds whooped by natures ultimate power.
Anyway, a little off topic. I agree that Harper is asmart guy and a very "cool" politician. There will be no faith based agenda. He'll pass as many laws as he can that every party agrees with (gun laws, ethics in government law) Then he'll be prepared for the election especially when the other parties shut down the GST drop. However the house isn't sitting for another few months anyway so we'll have to wait and see. I promise you this though, the next 10 years will be some of the most exciting in Canadian political history so... Fasten Your Seatbelts.
Zac
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Post by brian on Jan 27, 2006 17:29:45 GMT -5
In the seventies I did volunteer work campaigning for the NDP and I remember getting annoyed at the Marxist Leninist and Communist candidates for “stealing” a few hundred votes that I kind of selfishly figured belonged to the NDP. But, at the same time, Conservatives and Liberals would tell me I was somehow wasting my vote because the NDP could “never” be elected based on past results. So, I came to realize an election isn’t about picking the winner based on a shopping list of promises. To me its more a strategy of looking at which party best reflects your philosophy and going with that. They may not have a chance this time around but when you help build their support then more people will consider them next time. You help build their media cred so they get more coverage next time. Maybe one of the majors will notice their growth and steal a few planks to your benefit. And now we get the bonus of $1.75 per vote funding so they can better get the message to everyone. So vote with your heart not with the odds. Vote strategically and it only counted if your candidate won by a single vote. Vote with your heart and it counts every time. Kind of cool, the page icon next to this thread has little flames shooting out of it. Wonder how they do that.
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Post by Syble on Jan 27, 2006 19:19:37 GMT -5
Politics is not something I can really comment on, but I can tell you why the icon flames! I pre-determined the amount of posts required in a thread before it became a hot topic! Sib
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Post by mabudon on Feb 6, 2006 9:53:50 GMT -5
So the new gov't gets sworn in today... I bet there'll be a lot more swearing in the next few weeks, as I don't expect Harper to wait til parliament sits to start at least hinting at what he has in store for the next session.... I like Brians analysis quite a bit, once the fractious splinter groups that make up his "base" start looking for the fulfillment of their wishes, things are gonna get HOT for the poor guy....
Things should really get interesting, even the last minority turn by the Liberals wasn't quite as "uncertain" as this one feels, I eally do expect some fireworks... as long as ONE party acquits themselves REALLY well this session, we may have a slim majority to look at next round...
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Post by zac on Feb 6, 2006 22:37:13 GMT -5
Quite an interesting day in the political realm as Carl so rightly predicted. I have never heard of a cabinet minister, who didn't run in the election, being appointed to the senate so that he could join cabinet, but hey this is poiltics and the loopholes are endless. I really enjoyed the piece the CBC did on Emerson today. They talked about how 3 weeks ago he was bashing the Conservatives to no end, and now, well he's seemed to mellow-out, as he sidled up to the PM(and a cabinet position...coincidence). I'm looking forward to April 3rd when the house sits for the first time...should be...fun(is that the right word).
Zac
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Post by mabudon on Feb 7, 2006 7:27:41 GMT -5
Oh man, I couldn't believe that move- if I was one of the folks who voted for that guy as a Liberal I would be kinda angry and I don't even know what else- one thing that has become clear to me is that even the Liberals aren't too concerned to keep ANY measure of "distinction from the Conservatives" other than on social "issues", which is kinda sinster, I have been on a LOt about how thw Liberals are what the 80's conservatives were, sorta, the NDP are more like the 80's liberals and the Conservatives are more like the Republicans under Reagan... now it seems even that analysis was a bit soft (the defection of hyper-sonservative Stronach should have tipped me off I guess, but I'm kinda slow sometimes)......
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Post by brian on Feb 7, 2006 15:43:07 GMT -5
At least Stock wasn't made minister of foreign affairs. Minister of safety should be pretty safe as long as he doesn't run with scissors... then again, Bush put Brownie in charge of FEMA thinking he would be safe there. And Katrina happened.
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